On Taiwanese Independence

Taiwan today is in an interesting and unique situation of being a nation in every sense of the word, yet not being recognized as one by the international community. This is due to the pressure from Mainland China, whose rise in power and claim over Taiwan has steadily influenced the stance of many nations around the world.

And so (sooner rather than later), I think one very important thing to do is for the Taiwanese people to break out of their apathy and to seriously and carefully discuss this issue without fanning the flames of passion and ideology. Furthermore, it is important to consider all ideas, and for each person, regardless of political affiliation, to be one another's student, to approach each other humbly, seek wisdom, and see what kind of solutions can be learned, proposed, and tested, together in a synergistic manner.

While I do not currently have a stance on Taiwanese independence, my main stance, which I believe is the stance of the majority of Taiwanese, is I stand for a solution that will lead to lasting peace and prosperity in Taiwan.

That said, I also believe the following are facts grounded in reality:
1) Taiwan has de facto independence - i.e. in actuality, Taiwan and China operate as two different countries. Taiwan has its own government, laws, constitution, armed forces, land, territorial boundaries, people, economy, relationships with other countries, visas, etc.
2) China has splintered apart and united back together many times throughout history (合久必分, 分久必合 - see Romance of the Three Kingdoms)
3) Chinese people will always consider Taiwan as a part of China, regardless of the merits of the arguments for or against from a historical, cultural, or ethnic perspective.
4) Taiwan is about 150km from China and it is not really possible to move it any further away.
5) As time passes, given the rise of the Chinese economy, the leverage will shift more and more from Taiwan to China.

And so in some ways, while I think Taiwanese independence might be a worthy and noble stand (though, I believe ethnically speaking, the Taiwanese are as Chinese as the Sichuanese are Chinese), I don't really think it is a very pragmatic approach.

Unlike the US and England back in the Revolutionary War, Taiwan does not have a whole ocean between them and China, and just given Chinese history, China is not about to let go of Taiwan forever regardless of how many setbacks it meets. China and Taiwan are neighbors and we need to find a peaceful solution acceptable to both sides.

Thus, here is one idea I would propose:

1) Taiwan acknowledges China's claim over it, and they conceded they will eventually be united with the Mainland.
2) Union with the Mainland will not happen until X years (where X is a relatively long period of time in which there may be drastic changes, e.g. 50 years, 100 years, 200 years, etc) in the future (or alternatively, China will not declare war on Taiwan over unification until X years into the future).
3) In the meantime, China will recognize the Taiwanese government and that Taiwan is a de jure nation. It will acknowledge Taiwan's self rule; it will no longer call on any nations to withhold statehood recognition from Taiwan, and it will not try to prevent Taiwan from joining other international organizations, etc.
4) All the links will be open, and the Mainland and Taiwan will normalize state to state relationships.
5) As China continues to evolve, and the standard of living of its people goes up, and as closer ties to the mainland develop, improving both economies, it becomes increasingly possible a very smooth and natural union will occur down the road.
6) Assuming both governments are working together for the interests of both groups of people, the exact time frame of the union may be moved based on timing, suitability, and the will of the people.

This way, China will concede and recognize Taiwan as independent, thus conferring on it all the rights and powers of recognition by the international community for at least a certain and nonzero duration, and Taiwan will concede there will be eventual unification sometime down the road when it is suitable.

The general idea is the relationship between the two countries takes a radical shift, and they treat each other not as adversaries, but as partners in working out an agreement that would be best for both its constituents. It would not benefit China to have the union happen prematurely and have to deal with revolts and the possibility of resorting to bloodshed. Nor would it be ideal for Taiwan to hold back from union in its stubborn bid for independence if there may be additional economic benefits to do so, and if its constituents no longer are against it.

Certainly, the tricky part, besides convincing both governments to work towards such a solution, is coming up with the right ways to handle the potential contingency cases of where unification is delayed repeatedly without cause, or due to a change of power in the Mainland, the Mainland demands a swifter unification. Certainly having an arbitrator or a way to work out a solution would be preferable alternative to war, but it is unfortunate that if all options have been exhausted, the governments involved may still view war as a last resort.

Finally, as mentioned, since China is ever-growing in power and leverage, ideally this kind of discussion should happen as soon as possible (e.g. before ECFA), lest Taiwan loses so much leverage that they are unable to even negotiate and get this kind of an agreement.